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Good afternoon. It's Wednesday, June 24, 2026. Congress passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act and sent it to the President, the most consequential federal housing legislation of the cycle, while the rates market quietly erased what remained of its 2026 cut odds. Also in today's edition: Goldman's Phoenix buy, REIT capital raising, a midyear CRE forecast, and a $125 million Dallas recap.
CAPITAL MARKETS WATCH
Today's focus: Fed and Policy Wednesday. What are rate cut probabilities and what legislative developments affect multifamily capital?
The 10-year Treasury sits near 4.49% this morning, roughly flat on the day, as markets weigh a hawkish Fed against easing Middle East tensions. The Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, and the next FOMC meeting is July 28 to 29. The signal in the rates market is that 2026 cut expectations have effectively vanished: after the committee's hawkish June dot plot, CME FedWatch now prices roughly a coin-flip chance of a rate hike by September and no cuts this year, with several participants projecting a quarter to half point of increases by year end. Fannie Mae agency multifamily rates remain in the 5.54% to 6.35% range depending on size, leverage, and structure. On policy, Congress just passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act by overwhelming margins, the House voting 358 to 52 after an 85 to 5 Senate vote, sending the supply and finance package to the President. For multifamily capital, a no-cut, possible-hike regime means financing to today's agency execution rather than a forecast, while the ROAD Act's supply provisions shape the medium-term pipeline. May PCE on June 27 is the next release most likely to move spreads.
Rate data via Trading Economics, Fannie Mae, CME FedWatch Tool, and HousingWire.
TODAY'S TOP STORIES
1. Goldman Sachs Pays $81 Million for a Phoenix Apartment Asset. Institutional Capital Is Quietly Re-entering the Sun Belt at Reset Pricing.
Goldman Sachs paid $81 million for a Phoenix multifamily property changing hands for the first time, per Multi-Housing News on June 24. The acquisition lands in a metro that absorbed heavy supply and watched rents soften, exactly the kind of reset market where well-capitalized institutional buyers are testing entry points. For investors, a name like Goldman stepping into Phoenix signals that the smart-money bid is returning to oversupplied Sun Belt metros where pricing has corrected, even before rent growth has clearly turned.
Read the full story at Multi-Housing News
2. Congress Passes the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. A Bipartisan Supply and Finance Package Heads to the President.
Congress passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, with the House approving it 358 to 52 after the Senate's 85 to 5 vote, sending the bill to the President, who is expected to sign, per HousingWire and Connect CRE on June 23. The package targets housing supply, zoning, and finance reforms rather than direct subsidy, so its effects build over years. For multifamily investors, the bipartisan margin signals durable federal focus on the supply shortage that underpins long-run rental demand, and the final text's treatment of build-to-rent and financing rules is worth close reading.
Read the full story at HousingWire and Connect CRE
3. REIT Capital Raising Is Back in the 2026 Data. Public Markets Are Funding Real Estate Even as Private Volume Lags.
The latest REIT capital-raising figures from S&P show public real estate companies returning to the equity and debt markets in 2026, per Multi-Housing News on June 24. Active REIT issuance is a leading signal for sophisticated investors, because public vehicles raise capital when they see accretive places to deploy it. For syndicators watching a thin private transaction market, a reopening REIT window suggests the listed side sees value forming, often a precursor to private capital following once the bid-ask gap narrows.
Read the full story at Multi-Housing News
4. Industry Leaders Deliver a Midyear CRE Read. Zandi, Chang, and Pendergast Map the Second Half.
A midyear outlook featuring Mark Zandi, John Chang, and Lisa Pendergast frames a second half defined by elevated rates, a thinning construction pipeline, and selective recovery, per Commercial Property Executive on June 23. The consensus is less about a sharp turn than about bifurcation, with capital and demand favoring assets and markets that have already cleared their supply. For investors, the value of the midyear read is its alignment with the deal data: position for markets past their delivery peak, and underwrite to financing that exists today rather than a rate path the Fed has not promised.
Read the full story at Commercial Property Executive
5. HGI Lands $125 Million for a 900-Unit Dallas Community. Twice-Renovated Value-Add Still Clears the Debt Markets at Scale.
HGI secured $125 million for a 900-unit Dallas community that has been renovated twice, per Multi-Housing News on June 23. Financing a large, already-improved value-add asset signals that lenders remain willing to underwrite proven Sun Belt multifamily at meaningful size, even with spreads elevated. For syndicators, the takeaway is that scale and a documented operating history still attract capital, while unproven, lightly improved deals face a tougher financing market.
Read the full story at Multi-Housing News
THE FWC PERSPECTIVE
How today's news connects to the Fourth Wall Capital multifamily investment thesis
The week's signal is a financing regime that has stopped pretending a rate cut is coming. With the Fed holding and markets now leaning toward a hike, the 2026 thesis is no longer about waiting for cheaper debt, it is about which assets pencil at agency execution near 5.5% today. Goldman's Phoenix entry and a reopening REIT window say institutional capital sees value forming in markets that already absorbed their supply, not across the board.
Policy adds a slower-moving tailwind. The ROAD to Housing Act's passage keeps federal attention on the supply shortage that anchors long-run rental demand, even if its effects take years to reach the pipeline. Fourth Wall Capital reads the midyear consensus the way the deal data reads: position in supply-constrained submarkets past their delivery peak, underwrite to today's spreads, and let disciplined structure, not a forecast, carry the margin of safety into the second half.
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